Deep dive | India’s route to Test#1
I blogged about some stats and when i was cross checking I noticed something was off and I did the correction. Also, while i was doing the corrections, I wondered what attributed to India taking #1 position and how did Dhoni impacted that revolution. What I found was a revelation of facts that a lot of is was favorable and because of Australia and SA not doing their best and India matching up their worst or just being a little better.
To begin with the correction from earlier post is: India streak in tests not loosing a match is 14. Started on 10/9/2008 against Australia (Draw) and ended when they lost to SA on 2/6/2010. during this period India went from 3rd position (100 points) to 1st position (124 points). Also note that during period Australia dropped from 141 points to 116 and SA went from 116 to 120 points and were 2nd in rankings when they beat India.
Lets see how India, Australia and SA fared in this time period:
|Played||Wins||Loss||Draw||Home||Away||Wins Home||Wins Away||Opponents – Home||Opponents Away|
|India||31||15||6||10||19||12||9||6||SA, Aus, Eng, SL, NZ||SL, NZ, Bng, SA|
|Australia||37||17||13||7||21||16||9||8||NZ, SA, WI, Pak, Eng||WI, Ind, SA, Eng, NZ, Pak|
|SA||28||13||8||7||12||16||5||8||Ban, Aus, Eng, Ind||Ind, Eng, Aus, WI, Pak|
|Home %||Home Win%||Away Win%||Win %||Loss %|
So a pattern clearly emerges – India played less matches in this period and their matches played at home were significantly high. They just played 4 series against Aus and SA and rest were against weaker test teams like WI and Bangladesh (note Australia was not winning enough either and were declining)
Australia were loosing heavily and given their better win rates in 2004-2007, they were loosing points because of the 3-year cumulative match in the ICC Ranking system. That how even in some periods where they were not loosing, they were loosing on points because they played lesser cricket and were playing against teams way below them compared to in 2004 where they were facing top teams.
South Africa were kind of neutral, but definitely played more matches abroad and had series against India and Australia consistently.
Also, note that India remained on top because their Loosing % is significantly higher than other two, while their win percent is almost same. This means they were drawing a lot more than others.
Overall, it clearly presents a case where India has been more conservative on their test playing strategies – playing less, playing at home, don’t loose and play safe to draw.
Now, if all that was played just as I can see all of those, good strategy to be number one. It is like saying “Let the others fight and diminish their resources and we will come on top because of their losses.”
Now – please tell me what did Dhoni do to take India here – it just happened. With a good team and safe strategy forces were in our favor. I am happy we are number one, but Dhoni did nothing in all this to happen. As a captain he could not do what all others in the past have struggled – improve our performance overseas. Change that – and then be called a Great Captain.
- India under Dhoni (kapilvirenahuja.wordpress.com)
- Dhoni is the best captain but not the Greatest (kapilvirenahuja.wordpress.com)